Two Paths for AI, and Where They Lead
Most conversations about artificial intelligence start with the wrong question. We ask whether AI will be good or bad for us, whether it will take our jobs or cure our diseases, whether it will save us or end us. Those are important questions, but I believe they sit downstream of a more fundamental one: whose goals will AI be pursuing? Over the past few months I have been mapping out the possible futures that AI could lead us into. I ended up with twenty-one of them. Some are hopeful, some are terrifying, and a few are strangely quiet. What surprised me was that nearly all of them sort cleanly into two paths, and the fork between those paths comes down to that one question. The question that splits the future Today's AI models can already predict, plan, and act. Give an AI agent an objective and it will break it into sub-goals, use tools, work around obstacles, and keep going for hours without anyone telling it what to do next. I call this delegated agency . It is real, it is ...